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Hong Kong property market outlook 2015

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How will the Hong Kong property market perform in 2015? 


Before I share my thoughts lets look at how the market performed in 2014. 
In 2014, according to the Centaline Centa City Leading Index (CCI), property prices in HK, overall, rose around 14%, (with much of that gain taking place in the latter part of the year). 
So for a person wishing to buy who is currently out of the market, or for someone who had sold thinking the market had peaked, the 14% increase clearly represents a massive loss of money/opportunity.
This of course does not mean all properties in HK rose equally. Some types of property may have fallen up to 5% and some may have risen more than 20%, dependent on factors like quality, location, price range (ie higher priced property was more affected by Government cooling measures), appeal to Chinese property buyers, proximity to newly opened MTR stations, etc.
Bear in mind also that the 14% gain last year, which, if say leveraged at 50%, amounts to a 28% gain on capital invest…

What will Hong Kong Property Prices do in 2015?

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Well, if we could accurately predict the future we of course would all be retired millionaires by now. But I think a very basic question Hong Kong property investors have to be asking themselves is what is the outlook for Hong Kong property prices in 2015. 
On the one hand we have strong demand for property, and very low interest rates. On the other hand we have cooling measures in place, the possibility of interest rates rising, and among other things, political unrest in Hong Kong due to the Occupy Central movement, and the desire of many Hong Kong citizens for true democracy.
If I had to make a guess I would think that overall, prices will keep rising in 2015 in Hong Kong. I can't see interest rates rising at all until late 2015, and even then they will rise only very very slightly, if at all. Property cooling measures are very unlikely to be increased, and they are more and more being "priced in" which means that eventually, when they are removed, the removal of proper…