Park Island, Ma Wan, Hong Kong

Below is the latest Centa City Index price update for Park Island. Park Island Price Graph 2017 Prices now average at $9619.55 psf net, (and over $12500 psf gross). Prices have followed a relatively constant growth trend  since 2009. I spoke to an experienced developer's daughter last month who told me that her family believe average prices will hit over 10K psf net by Chinese new year. (By the way, this also makes it very easy to calculate price. For example a 550 net psf average apartment price would be 5.5m HKD). She expected relatively solid growth of 8% per annum over the next 2-3 years, and indicated that she would only be concerned if overall HK prices spiked up something like 20% in a year, which would in turn lead to a further fear of missing out HK-style frenzy (which would in turn eventually lead to a bubble burst). China values social stability and so would ideally like to see contained but constant, non-volatile growth for HK in a way that keeps the majority...

Let's take a look at how prices of property in Ma Wan / Park Island performed this year so far. A year ago, in August 2014, I made a prediction as to where prices for Hong Kong property might go, in my post:  What will Hong Kong property prices do ? In that post, I wrote the following: "If I had to make a guess I would think that overall, prices will keep rising in 2015 in Hong Kong. I can't see interest rates rising at all until late 2015, and even then they will rise only very very slightly, if at all. Property cooling measures are very unlikely to be increased, and they are more and more being "priced in" which means that eventually, when they are removed, the removal of property cooling measures in Hong Kong will be very supportive of property prices. All in all, the factors going forward, weighed up, point to quite decent property price growth for Hong Kong next year." It turns out I was spot on the mark. I also included a graph at...

The anxiety of the US debt crisis caused mayhem on the world's stock markets last week, and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong was no exception, dropping nearly 2000 points. The fear of an economic slowdown also apparently affected property sales in Hong Kong, with there being a number of reports of recent buyers of apartments forfeiting deposits and failing to complete purchase agreements for fear that property prices might fall. So called property "experts" in Hong Kong appear divided on whether the recent crisis will have any effect on the continued growth in property prices Hong Kong has seen over the last few years. My own view is that prices are likely to keep rising, after perhaps a month or two of short-term uncertainty. The US Fed said at its last policy meeting that it will keep its benchmark short-term interest rates at close to zero through to at least mid-2013. This ensures continued super-cheap borrowing in HK (due the the HKD peg to the USD), and it means we wil...