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Showing posts with the label HK property price graph

Is the Hong Kong Property market back?

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There is a notable increases in agents and prospective buyers around this weekend, and the "buzz" of another possible period of property prices increases is definitely in the air. I would not say its a frenzy by any means, but definitely a notable stirring of interest and activity.
And as always, what seems to happen in HK so quickly, is that those sellers who had considered selling only a few weeks ago are putting their asking prices up in response to buyers who are now looking to get "back in", sensing that prices are moving back up.
Are we really back into upward movement in HK property prices? Possibly. 
Certainly, the outlook for interest rates increases is becoming increasingly subdued. A 25bps increases, whether it comes in December or some time in 2017 will be easily absorbed by the HK property market, except perhaps to some extent, the high end luxury market. 
Supply is still very limited, with the big increase in supply "promised" by CY Leung n…

What will Hong Kong Property Prices do in 2015?

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Well, if we could accurately predict the future we of course would all be retired millionaires by now. But I think a very basic question Hong Kong property investors have to be asking themselves is what is the outlook for Hong Kong property prices in 2015. 
On the one hand we have strong demand for property, and very low interest rates. On the other hand we have cooling measures in place, the possibility of interest rates rising, and among other things, political unrest in Hong Kong due to the Occupy Central movement, and the desire of many Hong Kong citizens for true democracy.
If I had to make a guess I would think that overall, prices will keep rising in 2015 in Hong Kong. I can't see interest rates rising at all until late 2015, and even then they will rise only very very slightly, if at all. Property cooling measures are very unlikely to be increased, and they are more and more being "priced in" which means that eventually, when they are removed, the removal of proper…

Park Island property prices are poised for a new surge

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Property agents around Park Island are reporting strong buying demand for Park Island properties as primarily Hong Kong investors appear to see significant gains ahead for Park Island property as a result of end-user demand. Some agents are forecasting a price of $10,000 psf for regular apartments to be reached by early 2014. I think this is possible but more likely by the end of 2014 or early 2015.
Below is the most recent price graph for Park Island, just out today, which seems to confirm this trend.
At the end of the graph you can see spike of 5.5% rise in prices over the last month.

The themes and the factors driving the continued rises are nothing new. Park Island is great value, excellent quality, and still very affordable compared to almost all other parts of Hong Kong. Borrowing costs are very affordable (and seem poised to remain so for some time yet), and Hong Kong residents are increasingly realizing that they need to preserve the value of their declining currency (pegged …

Park Island Property Prices - new records set for "small sized units".

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According to agents on the island last week was a busy month, with lots of enquiries from potential buyers.
I was sent the article below by a property agent on Park Island:
In summary, the article reports that  "small size apartment" sales broke record twice within the last month.
Park Island, Block 17, Mid Floor, Flat G
Size 449sqft
Price sold 3.12M ($6949 per sqf)
The owner brought in 2010 $2.45M and how now sold earning $1.33M up 54.8%.

According to the agent, the seller is now looking at buying a larger apartment on the Park Island. My comment on that is that whilst it appear the seller made a good profit, the larger apartment will of course also have risen in price, so from that perspective his "relative gain" may not actually be that much, as apartment prices everywhere (not just on Park Island) have risen substantially since 2010.

Some of these "small size" apartments were originally given to villagers from Ma Wan as part of the development deal with Sun …

Latest property data from Centadata

Seems prices on our island hit a record high last week, now just a touch short off 6000psf.

http://hk.centadata.com/cci/estate_info_e.aspx?id=008600

A few comments to consider when interpreting the data, and deciding whether to buy or sell:

1 - Will prices hold up during a new financial crisis coming from Europe?

2 - Park Island prices migh be up, how how about rentals? If rentals are not also rising then yields are dropping (unless interest rates have dropped, which they cannot really do as they are already all time lows).

3 - How about transaction volumes? If prices are up, but in the context of transaction volume being very low, what does this mean.

4 - Are prices on Park Island basically mirroring HK property prices trends, or is Park Island over (or under) performing HK generally.

Hong Kong property transactions records - what are the best information sources for current transactions prices?

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In the comments section of my blog posting : http://parkislandhongkong.blogspot.com/2011/12/property-prices-on-park-island-hit-new.html a reader commented:
"Where did you get this graph chart from? I want to view the source please, I've looked at Midland, Centadata, gohome and property.hk but they show different results to what you have on this blog."
Rather than try to anwer the question in the comments section of that posting, I will try to address it here.
The data and the HK property transaction graph were taken from Centaline property:
www.hk.centadata.com
Specifically for Park Island, see: http://hk.centadata.com/pih09/pih09/estate.aspx?type=3&code=WDPPWPPEPB&lang=eng&source=data
I think Centadata is based on results done though the Centaline agency, and it seems to me they update the results daily. So you will see changes in the price graph on a daily basis, depending upon the most recent transactions. That is also where I got the price data for my previous po…

Park Island Property Price graph

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Here is the latest graph of Park Island Property prices, from Centadata:


My own view is that the graph seems to lag actual prices, but maybe is uses historical data 2-3 month old? Either way, the trend is up. Good for those in the market, but not good for those waiting to get in.

Any comments on property price outlook of Park Island is welcome here!