Park Island, Ma Wan, Hong Kong

How will the Hong Kong property market perform in 2015?  Hong Kong Property 2015 Forecast Before I share my thoughts lets look at how the market performed in 2014.  In 2014, according to the Centaline Centa City Leading Index (CCI), property prices in HK, overall, rose around 14%, (with much of that gain taking place in the latter part of the year).  So for a person wishing to buy who is currently out of the market, or for someone who had sold thinking the market had peaked, the 14% increase clearly represents a massive loss of money/opportunity. This of course does not mean all properties in HK rose equally. Some types of property may have fallen up to 5% and some may have risen more than 20%, dependent on factors like quality, location, price range (ie higher priced property was more affected by Government cooling measures), appeal to Chinese property buyers, proximity to newly opened MTR stations, etc. Bear in mind also that the 14% gain last...

Well, if we could accurately predict the future we of course would all be retired millionaires by now. But I think a very basic question Hong Kong property investors have to be asking themselves is what is the outlook for Hong Kong property prices in 2015.  On the one hand we have strong demand for property, and very low interest rates. On the other hand we have cooling measures in place, the possibility of interest rates rising, and among other things, political unrest in Hong Kong due to the Occupy Central movement, and the desire of many Hong Kong citizens for true democracy. If I had to make a guess I would think that overall, prices will keep rising in 2015 in Hong Kong. I can't see interest rates rising at all until late 2015, and even then they will rise only very very slightly, if at all. Property cooling measures are very unlikely to be increased, and they are more and more being "priced in" which means that eventually, when they are removed, the remova...

In a post in 2012 I wrote about plans to significantly expand/replenish the main beach on Ma Wan. See : http://parkislandhongkong.blogspot.com/2012/09/ma-wans-tung-wan-beach-to-be-extended.html  Map of proposed Tung Wan Beach replenishment project. I spoke to the Department of Leisure and Cultural Services today for an update, as the previous plans were to commence works in March or April of 2014, and so far I have not see the beach grow. The latest plans are now for works to be commenced in March/April of 2015, with the project to be finished by the end of 2015. So, what caused the delay? Well it's typical Government bureaucracy, (as is often the case). In a nutshell, the volume of sand to be added is so large that it will "significantly alter the shoreline and high-water mark". In essence under some Ordinances, this is considered to be "creating new land". So even though the Department of Leisure and Cultural Services has approved the pro...

Park Island Property Prices rose 8.5% over the last month. I won't go over the many reasons for this again, as I have posted on this before, for example: http://parkislandhongkong.blogspot.com/2013/02/park-island-property-prices-are-poised.html http://parkislandhongkong.blogspot.com/2012/09/park-island-property-prices-new-records.html Click here to view the latest published statistical information on  Park Island Property Prices . Park Island property remains exceptional value at current prices compared to property in almost all other part of Hong Kong, so I would expect that prices are likely to keep rising. I will shortly post an update on the latest Park Island ferry, taxi, and bus schedules. A reminder that if you support the proposal for Private Car Parking for Park Island Residents, there is a petition you can sign here:  Park Island Resident's Car Parking Petition. That's it for now. The Park Island Blogger

According to agents on the island last week was a busy month, with lots of enquiries from potential buyers. I was sent the article below by a property agent on Park Island: Park Island Property Newspaper Article In summary, the article reports that  "small size apartment" sales broke record twice within the last month. Park Island, Block 17, Mid Floor, Flat G Size 449sqft Price sold 3.12M ($6949 per sqf) The owner brought in 2010 $2.45M and how now sold earning $1.33M up 54.8%. According to the agent, the seller is now looking at buying a larger apartment on the Park Island. My comment on that is that whilst it appear the seller made a good profit, the larger apartment will of course also have risen in price, so from that perspective his "relative gain" may not actually be that much, as apartment prices everywhere (not just on Park Island) have risen substantially since 2010.   Some of these "small size" apartments were originally...

Price Graph for Park Island, Ma Wan, Hong Kong This chart shows prices for Park Island per square foot, from January 2010 to March 2012. As you can see, prices stopped rising for the last 9 months of 2011 (staying at around $5500 psf), and transaction volume fell during the last 6 months of 2011. See this comment on Hong Kong Property Prices I made last year for a more detailed explanation of what lead to the stablizing in prices and the decline in transaction volume in 2011. So far in 2012, it seems prices have started to pick up again, as well as transaction volume, although I am not sure yet if this is a short term effect due to the Anacapri launch or not. Let's see. I still think my predictions in the article referred to above will be correct.

Park Island prices are close to record highs, (but still very cheap in my opinion). Park Island Property Prices As you can see from the graph, prices on Park Island seem to be maintaining their gradual accent. The correction in October-December 2011 was I think due to the panic over Greece defaulting on its debt. As Park Island is very much end-user driven, rather then speculative, I think prices will continue, over time to steadily rise. Perhaps not as sharply as places like the Mid Levels during "hot" times, but also they will not decline as sharply during "cold" times.

Well as the end of the year approaches, lets see how Park Island fared in terms of property prices compared to the rest of Hong Kong.   Park Island Transactions 2011   The lower line on the graph shows the average performance of all Hong Kong properties over the 2011 year. As you can see Hong Kong prices rose around 10% in the first 4 months of 2011, and then stayed pretty much at the level for the rest of the year. Park Island prices (the upper line on the graph) rose continuously for the the first 6 months, up around 20%, and then remained at that level for the rest of the year. Transaction volume (the bottom bar graph) dropped noticeably over the last 6 months of the year both for Park Island and for Hong Kong generally. My predictions Hong Kong property prices in  2012. 1 - The Government will ease off a little on the measures that caused transaction volumes to become so low. Property agents are hurting, and so I expect property transaction volume will be 20-3...

Well, despite all the doom and gloom, it seems that prices have hit yet again a new high. Not good news for those waiting to buy, but obviously comforting for existing owners, (except those hoping for a fall so they can upgrade!). I still think that in these volitile times, you can keep your eyes out for a bargain. There must surely be sellers who have lose money in the stock market, who want to sell off, I would think. And if you look at recent sales records, you can see that some people have recently bought well below current market prices. Meanwhile, an agent I spoke to today told me that many people simply are not selling as they do not want to pay the Government tax that was imposed on people who sell within 2 years of buying. If so, I find it kind of ironic that a measure intended to stop property prices rising, has actually had the opposite effect. The agent I spoke to also told me they are noticing a pick up in people looking around, with a view to buying something before th...

I took a few photos of the new Park Island Villas on Ma Wan yesterday. As I wrote earlier, it seems they are being spruced up for promotional launch. An agent I spoke to today told me he has heard they will be priced at 22,000 to 25,000 per square foot. Apparently they will also be given a special name. Ie, not Phase 6 Park Island, but something more prestegious sounding such as Ocean Villas, for example. Park Island Phase 6 Villas Meanwhile, it seems Park Island property prices again hit a new high, although transaction volume remains low. See below the latest price trend graph from Centerline. Centerline price graph

There seem to be more French people moving to Park Island. Has anyone else noticed that? Also more Korean air hostesses are moving here, it seems. If you want to meet some of them, they can be often be seen poolside at Chic Chic on weekends. So, if you want to practice your Korean, or are looking for a Korean friend, girlfriend, or wife, that might be a good place to meet them! Has the gwailo who has joined the old folks doing tai chi in the piazza started a trend? Apparently a second gwailo was spotted joining them last week.  Maybe I should give it a try? The luxury villas are apparently having their current kitchens ripped out and a newer modern kitchen installed. Word is that Sun Hung Kai are going to position these as even more upmarket than they had initially planned, so are now putting in top of the line European kitchens. Around 20 workmen and engineering-looking types were recently seen thoroughly inspecting the structure right next to the new villas. What w...

For anyone wondering how prices are doing on Park Island, I am including the graph below, which is the most recent property price trend for Hong Kong property prices right up to today. For those of you who were hoping for a dip so you can buy, I am sorry to tell you that Park Island apartments hit a new high this month, up 2%. So much for the recent financial turmoil leading to property buying opportunities! Further, so far this year Park Island property prices have outperformed average Hong Kong property prices, Hong Kong island property prices, Kowloon property prices, and also property prices in the New Territories. Park Island Property Prices In the above graph, Park Island prices are in the blue colour, outperforming everything. The blue line below are the average prices for Hong Kong overall. The red line is for property prices in Kowloon. And the pink line is for NT property prices. So what is Park Island outperforming, and continuing to rise even in these recent...

Here is the latest graph of Park Island Property prices, from Centadata: My own view is that the graph seems to lag actual prices, but maybe is uses historical data 2-3 month old? Either way, the trend is up. Good for those in the market, but not good for those waiting to get in. Any comments on property price outlook of Park Island is welcome here!