Latest property data from Centadata
Seems prices on our island hit a record high last week, now just a touch short off 6000psf.
http://hk.centadata.com/cci/estate_info_e.aspx?id=008600
A few comments to consider when interpreting the data, and deciding whether to buy or sell:
1 - Will prices hold up during a new financial crisis coming from Europe?
2 - Park Island prices migh be up, how how about rentals? If rentals are not also rising then yields are dropping (unless interest rates have dropped, which they cannot really do as they are already all time lows).
3 - How about transaction volumes? If prices are up, but in the context of transaction volume being very low, what does this mean.
4 - Are prices on Park Island basically mirroring HK property prices trends, or is Park Island over (or under) performing HK generally.
http://hk.centadata.com/cci/estate_info_e.aspx?id=008600
A few comments to consider when interpreting the data, and deciding whether to buy or sell:
1 - Will prices hold up during a new financial crisis coming from Europe?
2 - Park Island prices migh be up, how how about rentals? If rentals are not also rising then yields are dropping (unless interest rates have dropped, which they cannot really do as they are already all time lows).
3 - How about transaction volumes? If prices are up, but in the context of transaction volume being very low, what does this mean.
4 - Are prices on Park Island basically mirroring HK property prices trends, or is Park Island over (or under) performing HK generally.
prices r up as govt wants them to keep rising. as long as govt want hk economy to do well they will make prices slowly rise. also more money will keep flow to hk from china.
ReplyDeletePark Island prices has been and will be in the foreseeable future trade at a discount to HK prices generally. Factors cited are painstakingly boring eg inconvenience, lack of transport (car acceess), schools etc. But it does track the general market movement albeit at a discount cited above. Purchasers would still enjoy the "HK ride" in property prices without huge spikes in either direction. That in itself is a comfort.
ReplyDeleteAs for impact of crisis from Europe, very minimal. More may come to HK/Asia to seek jobs - hence increase in demand for accomodation.
Interesting comments from property experts eg ex Centaline Chief re little sign of bubble as vacancy rates are below global average, CE elect CY Leung said would not flood the market with land supply (more to the point there aren't enough spare supply immediately to flood anything). Not a lot of desperate sellers even if the economy take a more severe hit as mortgage debt are very low. Some said 60% of homeowners have finished paying their mortgages - mindboggling statistics.
Low transaction volumes reflect buyers' caution amid uncertainties re general economy and also policy direction from CE elect. Volume to rise only when confidence return.
Well said, but property market do have cycles. No one knows when the current bull market cycle will end but one thing for sure is that the level at each cycle is above the previous. Tell me where I can get a property with prices at the high end of'80s level?(2 cycles ago). This goes to show that Park Island owners who look to enjoy the environment for the long term need to have no cause for concern.
ReplyDeleteThe HK Government has resorted to repeated warning about high property prices and willingness to tighten the screw. Is such verbal warning warranted? Will it affect Park Island? Very little, apart from dampening overall market sentiment, as PI prices are below the price range of their target market. In other words, PI prices has not gone senseless... Good to keep it that way.
ReplyDeletePrices in HK could potentially soften as a result of European economic crisis but I suspect no panic selling. There is no great cause for distress selling as mortgage debt levels are not high and debt burden are not excessive. Going by the prices for new built on sale i.e. $8,600 in Sha Tin, $8,400 in Tai Po, it does not indicate that property prices face great downward pressure.
ReplyDeletePI prices achieve new highs according to well regarded reports.
ReplyDeleteAgents said that if US launches QE3 then prices would get another boost.
ReplyDeletePrices dropped 3% last week. Makes me wonder will 2013 be the year to buy hk property at the start of next cycle?
ReplyDeleteFed tapering coming soon , signing the end of six years cheap money to finance HKD mortgage...I let you guess what's going to happen to HK properties prices :)
DeleteSorry to dissappoint you bro but park island prices just hit a new high this week. The Fed Tapering effect on HK property prices will lead to higher prices because you need to understand why the taper is coming. The taper is coming due to both positive economic data in the US and due to inflation returning. Both are positive for the HK property market. Further still, once rates rise the Govt in HK will reduce property cooling measures. Which guess what, will lead to prices going up. Buy now or you will miss the boat ...
DeleteJames you were right. As a follow up I just checked the latest prices and they kept rising. Strong demand for Park Island is pushing prices up and up.
ReplyDelete