An update on Park Island property prices as we head towards 2016

Let's take a look at how prices of property in Ma Wan / Park Island performed this year so far.

A year ago, in August 2014, I made a prediction as to where prices for Hong Kong property might go, in my post: What will Hong Kong property prices do?

In that post, I wrote the following:

"If I had to make a guess I would think that overall, prices will keep rising in 2015 in Hong Kong. I can't see interest rates rising at all until late 2015, and even then they will rise only very very slightly, if at all. Property cooling measures are very unlikely to be increased, and they are more and more being "priced in" which means that eventually, when they are removed, the removal of property cooling measures in Hong Kong will be very supportive of property prices.

All in all, the factors going forward, weighed up, point to quite decent property price growth for Hong Kong next year."

It turns out I was spot on the mark.

I also included a graph at that time, providing an indicative price increase trend line. See here:

Let's compare how the graph that I posted at that time compares to reality. Below is the current price graph for Park Island, including the year that followed my prediction in 2014.

Park Island Price graph August 2015

In the trend lines I posted in 2014, I plotted both a "high growth" and "low growth" trends. 

As you an see from the up to date 2015 price graph, prices increased at slightly above the "low growth" trend line.

Comments

  1. I have read this blog for a long time and yes all credit where its due you have been right each year about prices of HK property going up and yes yes Park Island was a great buy. I've noticed you haven't actually said where prices will go in 2016. Would property prices in HK still go up in 2016? Look at the stock markets right now. Would it effect property prices in HK too?

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  2. Your price graph is out of date. CCI Property index out today shows yet a new record average price had been reached. See for yourself http://www1.centadata.com/cci/estate_info_e.aspx?id=008600

    Prices now over for 10,800 psf for PI, and up over 5% since last week.

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  3. Just an observation, buyers are still sniffing around and seem quite interested. But how many are actually buying? What kinds of volume are we seeing in the transaction market for Park Island? Any data on this?

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  4. Actually I just found my own answer. Here if any one is interested

    http://transactions.gohome.com.hk/Outlying-Islands/en/

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  5. My God we have a financial crisis on the way and yet HK property prices hit a new peak on Friday. One can only conclude that either it will keep going up as rates stay low and China hot money stimulus ends up pumped into HK. Or that it will start to fall as panic speads to HK property.

    Qdos to Park Island blogger for your great advice on property so far. I would be impressed if you nail it again for next year. What do you reckon will happen with HK property prices in 2016?

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  6. Please do not show my actual email address here.

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  7. If you listen to the bankers they say China money printing and interest rate easing will come and that this will lead to a very bullish phase in the HK property market which Chinese percieve as a safe haven as they were all spooked by stocks now so this is where the money will flow. That combined with the possibility of a depegging of the peg in HK and BOOM the market could go up 30 pct from the level today.

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  8. Thanks everyone for these comments, questions and criticisms.

    As for what will happen with the HK Property market 2016 and the outlook for Park Island property prices I will do an article on this towards the end of the year. I am in Europe at the moment and its interesting to see how much the property market has risen in European cities also.

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  9. Holly shit! Park island up 10% this month and the biggest gain in HK. Now well over 11k psf. I know it's still great value but what's driving it up so quick???

    http://www1.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm

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