Park Island property prices.

"What's the Hong Kong property market going to do"?

That of course is the question everyone wants to know. And if we did know, we could of course all be very rich!

No one can predict with 100% accuracy what the market will do. But what we can do with 100% certainty is look at historical data.

The graph below shows Park Island apartment prices over the last year.

Park Island Property Prices

The line in blue is the average price per square foot for Park Island apartments, plotted on a weekly basis over the past year. And line in red is the 12 month moving average line.

Those who argue that "the market has turned" will point to the apparent decline in prices for transactions over the last few weeks (as shown by the last dip in the blue line).

On the other hand, others will argue that the rate of price increases has been steady and constant over the year (as shown by the constant rise upwards of the red line).

My own view is that we are in for continued long term prices increases, and that the trend shown in the red "moving average" line will continue.

There will of course be weekly dips and spikes as buyers and sellers react to property-related news, Government policies, global economic news etc, but it seems to me that with the outlook for interest rates to stay low for some time, stable economic growth in China and in Asia generally, limited land supply in HK, and a stable financial system in HK, that prices will keep on rising steadily. Overall, it is expensive to rent an apartment in HK, and yet its cheap to borrow and be a buyer. So it seems to me that this factor will keep continuing to create demand for property ownership from renters who are sick of ever increasing rents, and who have calculated that it makes more sense to be owners, given how low interest rates are in Hong Kong.